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Ignore Nate Silver. We make our own election forecast by voting and then counting votes
How are you living with the radical uncertainty of what Wednesday is going to look like? Even now through January of 2021 or 2025, how do you stay active during that uncertainty and not make it a limbo of mere anticipation or endurance? Again, appreciate the uh, the simplicity of your question, and the emotional lightness thereof. First step, I ignore Nate Silver. Ignore Nate Silver! I don’t know why we pay attention to this stuff.
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This Election is not Not Left v Right but Right V Wrong
And on the Democratic Party and teaching people to vote Biden so I obviously disagree that, well, I don’t know if it’s obvious. I might even partially agree the Democratic Party is not, here’s what I’ll say, I was a Bernie Sanders person where like, I voted for Bernie in the primary. And I was excited to do so ‘cause I thought he spoke a higher level of truth.
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First time in the final round, how long will they last?? – ACCW #3.3 – L2R
What’s up everybody! Welcome back to Redthorn’s Gaming. I’d like to do a shout out to DrReid, Bo Tosaka and Elle for twisting my arm and forcing me to do this video today with some very good arguments as to why i should be doing it so here we have round three of this month’s Aiden Castle Clan War. Let’s go. Here are your participants and there you have it right there FsK cracking 700 million for the first time ever in the server and this is raw power without mercenaries this is one of the reasons why they told me to to uh that i should be doing this video because of this right here that i mean even if they lose they said it’s going to wind up being a better first two that i recorded so hopefully that is the case i mean everyone else is in uh 630 650 here i bet on oblivion winning this i mean anything can happen obviously three clans can die bomb the hell out of fsk and eventually take them down but they will make this last longer no doubt because of how strong everyone is in this in this clan of sk so here are your rules it’s castle siege basically just in a different uh type of setup round rolls i mean you know we’ve seen this before and of course your rewards there i’ve got four minutes and nothing else to do so i will see you when this battle starts oh by the way i hope everyone had a safe and pleasant halloween i can’t say happy halloween unfortunately because that’s today but today is yesterday which to me would be tomorrow does that make sense but i’ll see you when this battle starts 10 seconds before we begin good luck to everyone involved five seconds before we begin and here we go round three aidan castle clan war number three what are they doing they’re just sort of standing around that’s transcendence okay i’m just lagging out right now i don’t actually know where i’m going there’s potatoes by the way my tablet might die there we go my tablet might die i had it uh i had it plugged in but it wasn’t charging is this fsk’s deal yeah obviously yeah so i had it plugged in and it wasn’t charging and i’m not sure what’s going on yeah i do i know exactly what’s going on my frigging tablet is four years old and it’s time for something new but i’m really trying to hold out for an android tablet that samsung made one i think it’s called their s7 and it’s so close to being as good as the ipad which has dominated the market from like day one there’s just a massive amount of mess right here what did i just see i didn’t see that something about 60 seconds really it’s under attack there we go i wonder if i wonder if fsk buffed this base because if they did it’s going to take them a long time oh my goodness like they’re beating beating the crap out of this and uh it’s doing nothing to it now i’m trying to see other people’s headquarters if they’re gonna be but all i’m seeing is fsk this is just a mess fsk is yellow they’re down here china i’m just taking a long time for them to there’s a lot of them beating the crap out of this crystal and it’s taking them a long time to do something to it i mean if i was the fsk and if they did buff this crystal i mean they could just send people out looks like that’s what they’re trying to do but who is that oblivion is standing here i mean there’s literally like a hundred plus people all beating the crap out of this base and it doesn’t look like fsk’s gonna be able to go anywhere like no one’s even gone to this right side so this is kind of pointless i mean look at this there’s just a thousand and one things here it’s almost like fsk either didn’t show up in fourth but they’ve now been uh eliminated from aidan castle clan war number three so and i mean that less than what five and a half minutes some less than 500 minutes and it’s already done congratulations to oblivion for taking the castle i called that one so i got that in my uh my bidding i know i got that much i also believe the other one i bid on was uh fsk having the most leader deaths i don’t remember whom i bid i think i’ve been on fsk to have the most defensive towers destroyed so we’ll just take that one as a loss congratulations the arrow of potatoes for taking number one sumi from oblivion for taking number one on x and smooth shaft there are your stats and i got two out of three yep that’s too easy so we’ll take 798.
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False obedience - unlawful illicit trust in superiors 😈 papalism 👉🏻 Bergoglio
False obedience - Unlawful obedience St. Thomas Aquinas tells us that there are three kinds of obedience: 1 That which is sufficient for salvation, from one who obeys in what he is obliged to. 2 The perfect one. From the one who obeys in all that is lawful. 3 The indiscreet or illicit, from the one who also obeys in what is illicit. In the first kind of obedience man seeks sufficient obedience to save himself, but this obedience is incomplete and risky because it is done only for love of oneself and not for love of God, so it lacks virtue and is a trap for salvation.
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Travis Scott Air Jordan 1 vs Mocha Air Jordan 1
today we are going to settle the debate i did a poll on instagram to see if the mocha or the travis scott one was better and you’re gonna be surprised by the numbers so stick around welcome back to the channel what’s up with you guys how you doing how you been if you did not know by now my name is dj and this is the dna show now if you haven’t already make sure you hit that subscribe button don’t forget to hit the bell notification i’ll let you know every time i upload a new video and smash the like button because that helps the algorithm oh so much so with all that being said i think first you guys have an idea of what the travis scott one looks like so we’re gonna eliminate this shoe for a second i’m gonna give you guys an in-depth look at this sneaker first that way you at least have an understanding about the mocha one first before we get into the comparison between the two so starting with the mocha one i’m going to run through this real quick and let you guys see what this shoe has to offer looking at the outsole you have all black air jordan one outsole i love that hit on the sneaker because that makes it easy to rock looking at the midsole you have a white midsole with a white stitch and then going to the upper you have a solid leather not too bad i’m not mad at it you got a black toe similar to the black toe air jordan one here’s a look at my pair right here i like to wear these a lot this original color blocking style right here is from way way way back in the day and i think anytime you put this color blocking style onto a sneaker and change the back color it will always be a hit simply because this color blocking style alone is a classic style so that makes it really hard not to love a shoe like this with a color blocking style just like the og style so that alone right there is gonna make a lot of people like the shoe and me personally i love this shoe simply because of the same reason one thing that i am noticing about this shoe is the white leather kind of has like that creamy look to it it’s not exactly pure white and that’s one thing that i do like about these ones as well looking at the tongue you have a white mesh tongue with the black nike air branding right here we have two different lace styles in here specifically because that has been another debate as well so as you see right here we have the tan laces that come with the shoe and we have the black standard laces that come already laced into the shoe so what i did was make sure that it was laced in two different styles and i want to see what you guys say in the comment section down below which style do you like more as you can see from the results right here this is what the people went with me personally i like the black style a little bit more i tend to rock my chicago’s or my black toes or anything like that as you can see from this pair black laces i tend to go with darker laces because i know for one they’re not gonna get dirty and you can’t see it and for two i just kind of like to make my shoe look a little bit darker so it doesn’t look as big because i’m a size 13 so when i personally wear a shoe with white and it has white laces it just makes the shoe look a little bit bigger on my foot so i tend to go with darker colors and darker tones on sneakers and that’s why i love this one as well because of the brown and the earth tones and different things like that now looking at the back of the shoe this is one thing that everybody’s been saying this is the poor man travis scott air jordan one or these are just like the travis scott jordans they’re fire oh my gosh i love them they should have done these over those so i’ve heard different results and different answers from so many different people so let’s go ahead and compare the two shoes okay so let’s talk about numbers first retail on the mocha air jordan one is a hundred and seventy dollars retail on the travis scott air jordan one is a hundred and seventy five dollars now the travis scott air jordan one actually comes with four different laces you got your kind of like tan you got your pink red brown so really you got five different pair laces that come with the travis sky air jordan one so that’s already like one point for the travis scott now i think it would be really dope if people started taking those pink laces and different stuff like that and putting them into the mochas because that’s gonna give it that same type of vibe that a lot of people wanted with these and bringing that over to these since we’re on special touches and collaborations obviously as you can tell the box is brown with the reds so a lot of people like that for collection aesthetic purposes as well and then when you look at the back on the hill right here as you can see you have your cactus jack logo and nothing here on the back but when you look at the materials right there you can see that the cactus jack air jordan 1 has a little bit more kind of feel a little bit more touch to that suede when you see it on the back of the shoe and the colors are very very close but i personally think they are different colors you guys can decide that down below in the comment section from seeing the pictures right there let me know what you think do you think they’re identical or is close enough or why are you even tripping about it like i’ve heard so many different things about people’s opinions about the two materials right here me personally i think the cactus jack is just a little bit better when it comes to that as well also you have a stash pocket right here around the ankle all the way around the foot now this is something that’s like a cool hit or whatever but realistically you’re never gonna use it what are you gonna put inside of it it’s a dope concept i understand it but i’ve personally never seen anybody put anything inside of that so yeah that’s cool and all but i’m not gonna give that like a bonus touch to the shoe to make it better than the other one so another big thing that obviously stands out like i said before is the swoosh so as you can see you have your regular swoosh and your backward swoosh now this is another 50 50 thing some people just like the regular classic og style and i get that some people like to change up and to switch to directions and like whoa this is something different i understand that i appreciate this a lot i really do but if they started making a bunch of jordans with this backwards swoosh on them like i wouldn’t be like oh yeah i need those i need those i need those if they made them regular style like this i’ll be like yes i need those i need those i need those so i think this is that one you know unique rare just you know that one time type thing or every other time or his collection only or something like that so i get that that’s cool and all but me personally i like the og style just a little bit more so when it comes to color blocking you have something more similar to chicago color blocking style right here and then you have like a black toe color blocking style right here those are two iconic color blocking styles and i think that’s a big preference thing as well so that kind of comes down to you which one do you like more i’m kind of 50 50.
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Acertando Bulova Millennia 96a06 calibre Miyota Aw00-Ezequias Relojoeiro
Hi there and beauty Ezequias watchmaker with another video, today I will teach you how to set the time and alarm for this Bulova Millennia, stay there you will enjoy Production of the soundtrack IMEG institute WhatsApp https://wa.me/351927703239 instagran @imeginstituto instagran @ eliezerpe7 Hey guys, I decided to make this video because this Bulova watch here was annoying to find out how it worked, it’s very simple visually, it only has two functions, but we didn’t find anything even on the manual manufacturer website to instruct how to do it, so it was very boring to find out so I decided to put this video on, even if it helps a person, because it is a very unusual watch So if it helps a person, I already won my day because it was very boring to find out, so it was worth following your like subscribe to the channel.
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Aum Shinrikyo Anime (Chouetsu Sekai - Episode 1: Levitation) [English subtitles]
It’s something that every person has It’s something that every person has It’s something that every heart holds It’s something that every heart holds They were always holding onto it, even before time itself began They were always holding onto it, even before time itself began It’s hiding inside every person It’s hiding inside every person It’s hiding inside every heart It’s hiding inside every heart Transcending the absolute darkness Transcending the absolute darkness it’s our ultimate spirit force.
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BIC Statement to the Group of Eminent Experts on Yemen
President, The release last month of six innocent Yemeni Bahá’ís from a Sana’a prison should have been a moment of relief. But it was coloured by injustice when the Houthi authorities made the release conditional on the Bahá’ís leaving the country. The first of these six was jailed seven years ago and later sentenced to death. The five others were imprisoned in subsequent years. Some were severely tortured and all faced baseless and religiously motivated charges.
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How to uncover your limiting beliefs - Motivational speech - Anthony Robbins - Monday Motivation
I know that’s what I really want to get results because guess what happens as soon as you come up with a plan opponents show up don’t they yes there’s 3 kinds of opponents if you read any good story watching a good movie as soon as the main protagonist has this desire to get excited about to come up with a plan that sure enough opponents come to oppose it that’s what creates drama in your life and there’s 3 opponents number one is the external opponents of can be all the other people are going to call you in the morning or by the way you want to do this in the evening obviously you can do this evening are your lunch break you can do this our power whatever time works for your schedule for your body but the ideal time again in the morning but the point is the minute you try to do this the opponent show up the phone starts ringing first thing in the morning there’s only the projects all these are the demands but all want your time and attention instead of giving it to yourself when you come up with a plan the same thing happens all kinds of resistance will show up and if it’s not from the external opponents it’ll be from the intimate opponents the people close to you who love you dearly but they don’t understand you gotta have time for yourself your kids want this and want that but you don’t take time for yourself is not as much of you to give them is there same thing for your spouse you know the people around your friends who don’t understand why you can’t talk to right now take those friends on the line with you on a walk with you get them to the our power I love to do this my lady it’s one of the great things we share together we do it side by side no after and we share our celebration but also there’s the internal opponents you know the parts inside either conflicted saying I really want to do this but I also want to do that you’ve got to put the opponents at bay and the only way to do that is discover one of the beliefs which is gonna be our next step what are the beliefs that are conflicting what are the beliefs that are stopping you see whenever you’re upset about something it’s because the beliefs you have beliefs control behavior whatever you do you do it because of your beliefs and you may not know what those beliefs are because often they’re unconscious so we’re gonna discover the beliefs that may be holding you back in the belief that a move you forward but I have to say this to you even extraordinary you listen to me babbling dumped all load on your incredibly.
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«Answer It or Eat It» #2: Rainbow Six Lore Show
I think they are tasty. It has pirate cola and pirate rum flavors! Licorice, pineapple, earwax… Orange, watermelon, baby diaper… This time it’s more interesting tastes! Hello everyone, dear friends! We continue to film Answer it or Eat It show that we’ve actually created over 6 months ago. This is episode #2. — You’re doing a productive job! — Hello everyone. So, your task, guys We have so-called ugly lollipops here on this plate.